As the months pass and hardly a trace of a D400, it seems Nikon is overlooking the high-end DX segment. Rumors of an upcoming D600 entry-level FX camera have many wondering if Nikon is abandoning DX and leaving it to amateurs. The recent announcement of the D3200 unveiled a new 24MP sensor in their entry level DSLR. While it is possible this new sensor could trickle-up into the higher end DX line, whether it will make it all the way up into a D400 is yet to be determined.

Nikon was quick to bring the D3200 to market. Their entry-level line is always updated at faster intervals than their professional cameras. The resolution outperforms the rest of their DX line (D5100, D7000, D300s) and this should be rectified in the future. What does the D3200 hint at for the future of DX? We see the introduction of the WU-1a WiFi adapter. It offers wireless connectivity and the ability to share pictures directly from the camera to the Internet via an Android app (and soon iOS). They also produce the D3200 in Thailand, a great sign showing that their badly damaged factory is getting back up to speed. Their Thailand factory produces all their DX DSLR camera bodies and several lenses. The camera has already hit store shelves, unlike the month or longer previous products have taken. These are positive signs for Nikon’s production capabilities. Will a D400 be coming down the pipe soon?

The D7000 and D5100 are still due for an update soon, and it is hard to believe there is going to be much room between the D7000 update and a possible entry-level FX D600. The D400 could offer a build quality and pro-features above the level of the D600 and justify a similar or even higher price, although it would seem out of place to have a DX camera priced above an FX. The converging pricing of different formats would not be new for Nikon. With the CX format Nikon 1, the V1 was introduced at a higher price than the entry level DX D3100. But how many DX DSLR will Nikon want to have in their lineup? In the near future the choices may be DX: D3200, D5100, D7000 and FX: D600(?), D800, D4. With the new FX models D4, D800/D800E and possibly D600, Nikon is luring DX users up to FX format.

Today, Nikon UK added the new 18-300mm DX lens to its web site. The 16X super zoom lens adds an additional 100mm of reach on top of the existing 18-200mm DX lens. Its official release may come in the next few days, perhaps accompanied by a new or updated DX DSLR.

Features of the new lens include Vibration Reduction VRII technology to help stabilize hand-held shots, thereby allowing use of shutter speeds up to 4 stops slower than without stabilization. The 16 times zoom brings distant objects into view and provides a 27 to 450mm equivalent focal range in 35mm terms. A zoom lock switch prevents the lens from extending when the camera is not in use. The use of nine rounded aperture blades provides pleasing out of focus effects for smooth bokeh. Three ED-coated elements reduce flare and ghosting, while three aspherical elements correct for distortion. The silent wave motor provides quiet auto-focus function.

Specifications:

Focal length: 18-300 mm
Maximum aperture: f/3.5-5.6
Minimum aperture: f/22-32
Construction: 19 elements, 14 groups
Aspherical lens elements: 3
ED lens elements: 3
Auto focus: Nikon Internal Focusing (IF) System
Focus motor: Silent Wave Motor
Minimum focus distance at 300mm: 0.45 m (1.48 ft) from focal plane
Maximum reproduction ratio: 1/3.2x
Diaphragm blades: 9 rounded aperture blades
Filter thread size: 77 mm
Dimensions: 83 mm diameter x 120 mm length
Weight: 830 g (29.3 oz)

This week Nikon Rumors reports Nikon will announce three more DSLR cameras in 2012. The current DSLR that have not been updated or replaced recently include the D3100, D5100, D7000 and D300s. It should be noted that all of these cameras are produced in Nikon’s Thailand facility that was badly damaged in the floods in October, 2011. The Thailand factory resumed production in January and should be operating at full capacity by the end of March.

A review of previous Nikon DSLR camera announcements may predict what is due for update this year:

D3000 series:
D3000 July 30, 2009
D3100 August 19, 2010
D3200 (?)

Schedule: 1 year updates
Status: D3200 overdue (delayed due to floods?)
Prediction: D3200 announcment in 2012 highly likely.

D5000 series:
D5000 April 14, 2009
D5100 April 5, 2011
D5200 (?)

Schedule: 2 year update schedule
Status: on schedule
Prediction: D5100 not due until 2013.

D7000 series:
D90 August 27, 2008
D7000 September 15, 2010
D7100 (?)

Schedule: 2-year update schedule
Status: on schedule
Prediction: D7100 due in late 2012.

D100-series:
D100 February 23, 2002
D200 November 1, 2005
D300 August 23, 2007
D300s July 30, 2009
D400 (?)

Schedule: Approximately 2 year update schedule
Status: D400 overdue (delayed due to floods?)
Prediction: D400 due in 2012.

Given the history of Nikon DSLR announcements, it seems the D3200 and D400 are the most likely cameras to be released soon. The D7100 may come later in 2012. The current D7000 is in extremely short supply due to the Thailand situation, with back orders stacking up for months. This will most likely be rectified before the updated D7100 is released. The D3100 and D5100 have not experienced as many shortages.

The D400 is most anticipated DSLR due for update. In his February 15 commentary, Thom Hogan notes the price gap between the $3000 D800 and $1200 D7000. He beleives with “100% confidence” that there will be camera to fill this spot. His thinks a $1700-2000 camera would fit and it would most likely be DX format. “History and price say that it will be DX,” he states. He thinks a full frame camera in this price range is unlikely due to the sensor cost.

We expect Nikon to make the D400 announcement soon. The Nikon D3200 is likely to follow. The D7100 will probably come later this fall.

Nikon’s Thailand factory was devastated in 2011 when floods reached Rojana Industrial Park, Ayutthaya. The plant produces the bulk of its DSLR cameras, including the D3100, D5100, D7000 and D300s models and would be the most likely candidate for the Nikon D400. Rising water put the entire ground floor of the facility under water and destroyed its components and assembly equipment, amounting to losses of over 10 billion Yen.

Last month the facility started to resume limited production. Nikon representative Tetsuya Morimoto has said that by the end of March it should be operating at full capacity.

As production resumes there is a worldwide shortage of Nikon DSLR cameras. Many dealers and customers have been waiting for months to receive their D7000 orders. It is not known where the D400 will be produced, but the situation in Thailand will undoubtedly delay the new camera’s production and announcement until Nikon can get its production back on track.